Business developers love to add more and more current opportunities to their sales funnel. It looks great on reports and promises a good month or quarter ahead. After all, the size of the pipeline is often seen as a key performance indicator (KPI).
But when does an opportunity stop being current? Just because no official rejection has been received doesn’t mean that an opportunity should linger in the funnel forever.
Why does this matter? Because inflating your funnel creates a false picture. Forecasted sales appear much higher than they realistically can or will be. And worse, it tempts business developers to waste time chasing leads that have no real chance.
So, what can you do to keep your sales outlook both realistic and optimistic?
Know Your Ratios and Set Realistic KPIs
If you’ve been in business development long enough, you already have a sense of how long deals typically take at each stage. Combine this with your sales targets, average deal size, and drop-out ratios, and you can set KPIs that actually reflect reality.
It’s simpler than it sounds. Even a basic Excel sheet can help map how many opportunities you need at each stage, and the average deal size required to hit your targets. The outcome? Clear, actionable metrics to guide your sales activities.
Rate Opportunities with Probability Factors
Every opportunity in your pipeline should be weighted with a probability of closing.
For example, if you submit a $1,000 proposal and there are three competitors (with equal chances), your probability is 25%. The weighted value of this opportunity is now $250.
By calculating weighted values, you get a far more accurate view of your true sales pipeline. A funnel that looks like $500,000 in total value might actually represent only $75,000 in realistic potential. This immediately tells you whether you need to ramp up prospecting.
Age Opportunities and Adjust Probabilities
Opportunities shouldn’t sit in your funnel forever. If a deal stalls, it’s time to downgrade its probability or close it out altogether.
That $1,000 proposal at 25%? If it’s been stuck at “proposal submitted” for two months, perhaps it should now be downgraded to 12.5%, or $125 in weighted value. And you’ll need to make up that gap with fresh, more promising leads.
Master the Art of Closing Out Dead Leads
It’s painful, but necessary: regularly review your pipeline, adjust probabilities, and close out leads that aren’t going anywhere.
This frees you to invest your time in leads that do have potential, and helps you avoid the trap of nurturing ghost opportunities that only waste your energy.
Watch Out for Phantom Shoppers
Some prospects repeatedly request proposals but never sign a contract. These might be phantom shoppers, gathering information or enjoying vendor attention without real buying intent.
Trust your instincts. If someone has sent you multiple RFPs but never signed anything, the next RFP is unlikely to end differently. Move on.
Follow Your Instincts and Focus on the 20%
Business development isn’t just science, it’s art. Your experience, intuition, and market knowledge are powerful tools. If your gut says a lead is a dead end, listen.
The 80-20 rule applies here too: 80% of your revenue will come from 20% of your pipeline. Focus your efforts where they count, and let go of the rest.
Happy business development, and may your funnel always be lean, clean, and realistic!
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